lyonzzzz Digital asset research

Research on where crypto markets actually go next.

Independent research on digital asset markets, perpetual futures exchanges and market structure, built from primary data — with measured figures labelled separately from modelled ones. Based in Scotland.

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Perpetual futures DEXs Market structure European regulation Valuation

Research

Long-form theses, published in full. One piece at a time, done properly.

Featured thesis October 2026 Perpetual futures • Europe • Valuation

Europe is the prize. Extended aims to become the everything exchange for Europe — global perps, EU licences and a path to stocks — with eToro bringing 3m+ funded accounts in the EU & UK and Circle providing the rails via Arc. The valuation case is built on a single 18× forward multiple on projected revenue.

By lyonzzzz  ·  ~14 min read Read full thesis →

Valuation — 18× forward P/E

  • Launch floor$150–200m FDV
  • Bear — $21m revenue~$380m
  • Base — $48m revenue~$860m
  • Bull — $87m revenue~$1.6bn
  • Polymarket implied~$200–250m

Fully diluted valuation at 18× projected revenue. Circulating market cap at 30% float: floor $50–66m, bear ~$110m, base ~$260m, bull ~$470m.

Current conviction

The strongest live view, logged with the research so it can be scored later.

Extended (XTEN), long into TGE. The $150–200m FDV launch floor is a market-structure call: most farmers have already left. Polymarket implies ~$236m against a base case of ~$860m at 18× forward revenue. The asymmetry is the position. Read the thesis →

Conviction: High · Horizon: through TGE (expected November 2026) and the first post-launch quarters · Logged October 2026. How calls are scored: Track Record.

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Background, briefly

Adviser to digital-asset platforms since 2024 Previously Growth Lead, Umbrella Network Regulated programme delivery Based in Scotland